Premanand’s Weblog

January 11, 2009

China Vs India Debate…Overdone? Yes

Filed under: Economy, Education, India — premanand @ 10:10 pm

Sometimes I do feel the way Prashant feels in this link  http://indianeconomy.org/2009/01/10/et-tu-gurcharan/.  Since I work in projects in both countries, I too get this question “India or China ?” comparison very often. But most of the time the question is from Indian partners, colleagues or friends.  The people who worked with me  in China don´t seem to take India as a competition. Sometimes they think Indians are “barbaric” because they eat with plain hands. On the other hand they think that Indian Technology and Service sectors are a lot more advanced than their own. They love Indian music. But think Indian movies are outdated and boring. But most Indians  associate China with cheap goods and definitely as a cut-throat competitor.  History of China when I studied was probably one chapter in one of  my school history classes while European history was a whole book. Even that focussed on only the building of the wall and thier conflict with Mongols. Culturally China doesn´t exist at all for Indians.

But in economy, can we say that China is going the better way and India not ?  I don´t think any of us have sufficient information. The time is too short to judge ( ..like Gurcharan Das states in his book..I totally beleive that indian woke up only early 90s and so comparison are valid only from that time onwards). Even comparison figures made by Ishant in the above site is based on notoriously  unreliable government dressed up statistical figures.   So what are we arguing about here? If we need to grow what have Chinese figures got to do with it? Chinese growth model is completely different from the Indian growth model and they cannot be interchanged. What works for the Chinese will not work for India and vice versa.

Gurcharan Das is one of my favourite Indian economics commentator and essayist. Normally his views are structurally organised and clearly put out. But in this article he seems  a bit exasperated by the questions from his Chinese friends. But he is very right in pointing out that if analysed on caste lines , the trader castes still score better in capital generation. This means even this generation is yet to break out of the mindset of the older generations (which were more stereo typed on caste lines).  How do you break generational mindsets ? One way is  by education and the other is media. I would say media is more balanced and for sure does not bank on caste or such divides (we don´t even have explicit politically biased newspaper like the west has ..like a Liberal newspaper or Conservative newspaper).  So the main culprit which is not doing its job properly is the education system. The education system is still not strong to reinforce modern ideas (or the necessary ideas to take us forward) and not equipped well enough to cultivate modern thinking among its students.

Well to the question  ”Is China Vs India Debate…Overdone? ” I would say. But if it brings out from  people to rethink inwards and look for solutions to  grow just by sense of competitions, I don´t mind another thousand of these discussions.

November 17, 2008

Nouriel Roubini..Guru …Who advises

Filed under: Economy, USA — Tags: , — premanand @ 1:14 am

If you read any newspaper or blog today you would find thousand analysis about why things went wrong. A year ago you could have seem most talking about why things are great now (inspite of the sub-prime issues). 2 years ago…things were even rosier.. At one point even Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley stopped talking negative…(may be his new assignment did not allow him too). But Nouriel Roubini maintained his stance that the path that USA was following monetary and economic policy wise was not the right way and that they will pay for it. Well now his prediction (and that of Stephen Roach before he moved to Asia) has come true. But atleast Fortune magazine recognized him and selected him as one of the new gurus of modern thinking.  Hope that in the future people show more eagerness in diagnostics rather than in postmortems. But then greed never promoted rationality.

August 1, 2008

Teachers – The Blind Spot in India´s Education outlook

Filed under: Education, India — Tags: , , — premanand @ 9:27 pm

Most independent observers of India have agreed that Education will be one of the main hurdles to India becoming a true developed country. The arguement most of the time has been that the poor funding is the main reason for poor education.  One would imagine that the schools where toppers start get hired with offers of hundred s of thousands of dollars as starting salary should be better off. Well it is not so judging by this study  http://www.assocham.org/prels/shownews.php?id=1528 . In short, most Indian Management Institute professors and lecturers have no idea about Indian economy.  That probably explains why most of the time Indian Educational Institutes lag in world rankings.

June 9, 2008

India Inc. will prosper..but not India

Filed under: Economy, India — premanand @ 11:50 pm

FT´s Hugh Young had this article to express his optimism on India Inc. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4f8ebac2-3108-11dd-bc93-000077b07658.html. As the article heading itself makes clear positive view while looking at India Inc. But can India also share the same future as the India Inc. Well I doubt. There is a big disconnect between India Inc. and India. (BJP party knows it well from the last election and in all probability the present government is also aware of this. In this article http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/256c9760-2c0c-11dd-9861-000077b07658,dwp_uuid=89fe9472-9c7f-11da-8762-0000779e2340.html Satyam´s head  is so much pleased with a weaker Rupee. I am not sure whether he gave a single thought about the link between the Global Oil Prices and the Indian Currency. Of course he is not paid to think about India. So who is going to think about India. Not the political parties. Since the loss of the PV Narisimha Rao´s governement nobody stood one their own and often had to bank on third parties whose interest is more to protect themselves and gain political milage rather than get things done. And now all the inflation (partly imported along with the the fall in dollar to protect the few cyber coolie companys) is going to make sure that economy is one in  the spotlight. For the spiralling wage inflation, global credit crunch  are going to force India Inc. to use all their competence and then they are going to realise India also needs to prosper and not just India Inc.  Probably Hugh Young needs to be reminded that inspite of their earning surprises, India Inc. still has very high P/E and India has the highest deficit.  

 

 

Hillary Clinton – Beaten by the Media or by her friends??

Filed under: Politics, USA — premanand @ 11:23 pm

Well , now that Hillary Clinton has finally given, one wonders what went wrong. That she was not accessible was well known fact. The liability of an aging Bill and his shadow on Hillary was also expected. Means it did not change since the last 16 months. She won all the key democratic states. She won all the swing voters states which the democrates need to beat a republic man. Whereas most of Obama wins are in republican states. He will really need to work on to get the backing of the key states he did not win. He was protrayed as elite more than Hillary. So why did Hillary loose?  Some say it is gender and some say it is all the mistakes she made.  The first one I would dismiss right away. The next one…her mistakes can easily been explained as just one in a many statements she made each day. These can be easily excused. 

Clue to this mystery is that Hillary almost always did better than what the polls said. She always defied the odds when she won. The main reason was that her support was more outside the media world. The world not accessible to the media or not interested in the media. Well this came up many times during the campaign there was an unfair treatment . Obama always was the media´s darling.  It appears to be a mutual love affair.

The other reason was that entire democratic establishment was against her. No idea why.Kennedy, Kerry and host of others more or less threw their weight behind her. I still remember when in one of the debates Hillary looked up at John Edwards while attacking Obama expecting his support. But then John Edwards came up attacking her along with Obama.

Even though I think that it is a gross failure of someone aspiring to be a president in not being able to maintain and control his or her own establishment, I feel the establishment itself was biased against her and never gave her a chance from day one. Well let us see what she does in the coming days.

 

May 30, 2008

Indian Education – Links with Tariff Reduction..Really??

Filed under: Education, India — premanand @ 11:35 pm

In the linked article http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/1174  the authors have tried to make a correlation between Tariff Reduction and Education in India. Their summary says it all

India’s trade liberalisation in the 1990s produced large gains, but it imposed significant costs of adjustment on communities with industries that lost tariff protection. A new study shows that those communities’ educational attainment lags behind the rest of India due to the intersection of trade adjustment, poverty, and schooling costs.

The study is actually conducted in Nilgiris and is related to the Tariff reduction in the tea industry which is one of the main industries in this area. Why the article caught me attention is because I was born, brought up and educated in this region. 90% of my close relatives still live there and for many their children still go school there.

Well, Nilgiris is a beautiful region…so would anybody´s home town…but this one is special. This is where three mountain ranges Western Ghats , Eastern Ghats and Anamalai Hills meet. There are not that as tall as Himalayas, but definieltely higher than the ones in Europe. Ooty one of the main towns is at 2300m above seal level. But this town is just a valley among the mountains. What makes this place unique is that it is so high yet closer to the equator giving it a lovely climate which is like a European spring and autumn rounf the year and definitely no snow. The main stay of Nilgiris has been agriculture because they grow most of the European vegetables for entire South of India and sometimes more. Around 1990 there was this a big boom in tea prices and most farmers switched to tea production. On the negative side ,such wonderful place has nothing other than agriculture and tourism ..nilgiris is the favourite summer spot for most South Indians and the favourtie honey moon spot. Nowadays many have diverged to employment outside Nilgiris capitalising on the Indian “Cyber Coolie ” boom. But unfortunately this has not done any good to Nilgiris demographic profile.

Nilgiris was most of the inhabitated only by tribals like Todas. But the region turned out to be the summer station for British elite and with them the farmers from the neighbouring area primarily from the state of Karnataka. They brought with them thier servants from the villages.  These servants lived under master´s land and did all the manual labour for the masters. Everything of their life was and still is determined by the masters and that includes the education of their children. Now for the masters it does not make sense to educate these children beyond elementary education. Also for the masters themselves since they are not really looking for job or some other excuse to really educate their children, most kids here drop off before completion of their school education. College is only for some of the rich and famous only as a past-time. This situation continues even now.  And considering that here the midday meals scheme (free lunch ..courtesy the Tamilnadu government) is very much active, even poverty cannot be an excuse for this pathetic situation.

Now back to the original topic, would anything in the Tariff system could have changed their lives. No..I don´t think so. Though the situation is not entirely a slavery system, it is something close to it. Some kind of rule like forcing that all children will have to attend school till atleast 18 years old or something similar is required to get these children out of the clutches of the landlords.  

    

 

May 26, 2008

Power of Forums-Siemens Automation

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: — premanand @ 11:24 pm

Siemens did an experiment in their forum for their industrial automation from 8th April to 5th May.(https://www.automation.siemens.com/WW/forum/guests/conferences.aspx?language=en) .I too participated in it and also managed to come within the  most active 30 members. The most active 30 members is a special because Siemens had promised a gift for these members. The forum was good example on how support services can be extended by a company by bringing in together all the experts. Industrial Automation is one place where such a forum is very essential. The problem faced by most programmers and engineers in this field is that the upgradation of both hardware and software products is nearly continues. Everyday you have a new product , update or service pack or hot fix or new firmware coming up. A typical programmer in this field has to be well versed with atleast some of these products and this should be a dedicated followup. Following up all items is impossible. But then when a programmer is at a plant site he is expected to solve all the problems then and there and causing no production loss to the customer.  it is then such a support forum helps. The siemens forum has been functioning already since 3 years. I have used it a number of times and also provided support through this forum wherever I could. But the biggest change i saw I when this Siemens announced this campaign with gifts. All of a sudden you could see so many engineers and programmers eager to reply to every question. Even “I did not know that” comments were quite often used, clearly to get to the top of the list. Many problems posted were getting solved immediately and sometimes even before I had finished typing I found few posts already up.

This shows how much a small encouragement could motivate people to participate in such “experience sharing” activities.   I am sure Siemens gained a lot of name and reputation out of this campaign. How much this contrasts from the campaign of Rockwell another industrial automation supplier did out of their forum. In 2002 their forum was completely free and accessible to everybody. But since then they have restricted it to contract based and not allowing all to participate on it. But which one makes better business sense?  My guess is that Siemens model should win. But for that Siemens should not only publicise these features and facilities. They should also go deep into the forum to understand their clients needs and problems.

February 4, 2008

MBA by mail!!! Who is better??

Filed under: Education, Europe, USA — Tags: , , , , — premanand @ 3:09 am

The regular ranking of MBAs take a lot of additional items into account  like salary benefit, connections, reputation of institution which are not really relevant to the course content offered.  But this year Economist did a ranking on the distance learning MBAs. Ranking in this group of MBA actually is very special. Here all the fringe elements don´t matter. Such MBAs hardly assist in job switch or salary rise . So the rating brings out the pure academic content. A person who is working and spends a part of free time , not expecting any gain in salary or position is going to be more truthful. He would be a better judge on the relevancy of the training he receives. Well, the ranking of these distance education MBAs  can be seen here http://mba.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=view_article&eiu_article_id=1782965163 .(I am not sure everybodycan see as the site requires registration). 5 British universities are on the top while US has 2 including the top one . France, Spain and Australia have one each.

Why would British Universities crowd this group while the US ones could only manage 2.  I guess the British universities cater to a lot of European managers who are working and don´t find enough in incentive to take a break from the job to do such courses.

January 31, 2008

Congrats ISB!!

Filed under: Education, India — Tags: , , , , — premanand @ 12:10 am

Ajay Shah´s blog  http://ajayshahblog.blogspot.com/2008/01/major-achievement-in-higher-education.html#links (one of my favourite Indian blogs ..ranks also quite high for all conomics related blogs world wide) mentioned about ISB being ranked 20th in the list of best management  institutions by Financial Times for the year 2008( http://rankings.ft.com/global-mba-rankings ).  Well,  Mr.Shah you are correct in assuming that this one of the highest ranking an Indian institution has had.  in my previous blogs I had covered a number of them of such ranking in various fields.  Congrats  ISB for making into the ranks!!!

 What is  surprising is that ISB never figured in any earlier lists. In fact the only management institution that appeared in any list is  IIM Ahmedabad that was ranked 92 in the list in the best MBA schools as rated by  Economist Intelligence Unit which is a sister company of the magazine Economist (http://mba.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=2002rankings&rank_category_id=20000002&region_id=&x=22&y=10).   Earlier I always suspected that there  is a problem in the ranking methodology. EIU has published its ranking methodology also http://mba.eiu.com/site_info.asp?info_name=wmba_rank_method. Yet, maybe Indian institutes are not responding properly or something of that sort. I  grew up with idea that IIMs and IITs are the greatest and makes it difficult to accept otherwise. But their consistent non-appearance in any world wide list made me wonder that the Western style of Education evaluation does not suit these institutions. In management institution lists  I could not  find any other chinese university or institution. But that excuse was blown away  in this list because IIM A comes after Shanghai based CEIBS at 90 and Chinese University of Hong Kong  at 91.  It is not that I am putting down the Chinese Management Institutes. But I always presumed that China was more Eastern and less Western than India in management. I still believe it being  so no matter what the different list say. I firmly believe that standard management courses have to be supplemented with some cultural differentiation for managers to excel in China while such special classes are not really required for India.

In any case , I am glad that we have a name that can be quoted as a premier world class institution and hope they can also make it into the next EIU Management Institution rankings. 

January 24, 2008

Indian Statewise Comparison of Primary Education

Filed under: Education, India — Tags: , — premanand @ 1:09 am

While answering a question about the primary education in India (education upto 10 year olds) in the upper house on Nov 26th , the Minister for Human Resource Development Dr.G.P.Pilania gave these facts.

1. National University of Education Planning and Administration has developed an index called Education Development Index which depends on access,infrastructure,teacher related indicators and elementary education outcome.

2. With this index the statewise (or union territory) figure are as follows

State / UT EDI Rank
Kerala 0.708 1
Delhi 0.707 2
Tamil Nadu 0.701 3
Pondicherry 0.7 4
Chandigarh 0.69 5
Karnataka 0.674 6
Himachal Pradesh 0.668 7
Andhra Pradesh 0.654 8
Mizoram 0.65 9
Lakshadweep 0.65 10
Sikkim 0.635 11
Maharashtra 0.635 12
Gujarat 0.63 13
Punjab 0.608 14
Uttaranchal 0.605 15
Jammu & Kashmir 0.597 16
Daman & Diu 0.592 17
Goa 0.586 18
Rajasthan 0.583 19
A & N Islands 0.566 20
Manipur 0.564 21
Chhattisgarh 0.559 22
Haryana 0.556 23
Dadra & Nagar Haveli 0.538 24
Tripura 0.535 25
Meghalaya 0.534 26
Nagaland 0.533 27
Orissa 0.512 28
Madhya Pradesh 0.512 29
Assam 0.49 30
Uttar Pradesh 0.482 31
West Bengal 0.467 32
Arunachal Pradesh 0.458 33
Jharkhand 0.435 34
Bihar 0.327 35

I could not find any data on the NUEPA site or anywhere else the actual factors and figures used for calculating EDI. But from the table it is worthwhile to note that southern states are performing much better than others while the eastern part and central  part are the worst. Though Bihar and Jharkhand was as expected , the surprise entry in the bottom is West Bengal. I tried looking for an coverage in the local Indian magazines/newspapers for this revelation. But I could not find any. I guess they are busy blowing the trumpet about how well India is doing in the stock market and in the world ´s eyes. If highlighted I would expect that this fact would hurt the Bengalis ego enough for them to gear up. But any amount of coverage is not going to anything in Bihar or Jharkhand. 

Inspite of being on the top of the list here, the south indian states seem to perform very poorly in the UPSC exams, IIT -JEE exams, IIM etc.  But on the other hand GMAT,GRE the percentage of successful candidates are higher (though a lot lesser number attempt it ).Also after education the economic growth excluding farming sector the South Indian states maintain the same lead (except for Kerala…they tend to be less entrepreneur-oriented).  So why do the other states (excluding the bottom states which are have no signs of improvement) perform better from primary education onwards? The answer is that they are coached to the indian style of examination based evaluation. The number of tutorial centers for various exams and the tuitions which are prevalent in other than southern states is the clue. In Tamilnadu somebody going for a special tuition apart from the class (could be to the same teacher or a different teacher) is considered humiliating and nobody reveals that they are attending such special classes. But in the other states this is the norm. So all teachers earn more money (except for the “inconsequential ones” like the language teachers) outside regular job and this also provides tax free earning for the teacher. Sometimes it is so lucratively that the teacher goes to school only to recruit new students for his or her special tuition. In the South, the bad performance of the student reflects on the teacher and most of the time the teacher take over the job of providing tuition free of cost or at very nominal costs just to save their own reputation to students who are very weak in their studies.

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